New Posts Starting January 5, 2008

Updated: May 5, 2008.

When P/E10=8: Accumulators

If the stock market follows its normal course, P/E10 will fall to 8 at some time within the next 10 to 15 years. This is the story for accumulators who dollar cost average.

When P/E10=8: Accumulators

Sometimes Dividends Get Cut

Some people ascribe special significance to the recent dividend cuts among several Blue Chip financial institutions. They should not.

Sometimes Dividends Get Cut

Research Highlights

Here is an overview of some of my more important findings.

Research Highlights

Approaching Retirement

You are approaching retirement. You haven't thought through your finances. What should you do?

Approaching Retirement

Dividend Disaster

You rely on dividends in retirement. Everything goes wrong. How bad might it be?

Dividend Disaster

Not There Yet, Today

Prices are falling. Before long, we can expect P/E10 to fall to 20. Can we withdraw 6% (plus inflation)?

No. We are not there yet. Not using a traditional approach.

Not There Yet, Today

6% is NOT Normal

There are times when you can withdraw 6% of your original balance (plus adjustments to match inflation) safely using a traditional approach. Such times are unusual.

6% is NOT Normal

Almost 5%

I made another attempt to reach a 30-year safe withdrawal rate of 5% (plus inflation) using a liquidation strategy. It came close.

In contrast, a Dividend Blend easily reaches a continuing withdrawal rate above 5% (plus inflation).

Almost 5%

Delayed Purchase Withdrawals

Close examination of Almost 5% data directs our attention to the waiting period as valuations return to normal. We must prepare for an extended period to assure safety.

Delayed Purchase Withdrawals
February 12, 2008 Letters to the Editor

Dividend Quality

Dividend investors should pay attention to the quality of dividends. Here are several factors to consider.

Dividend Quality

The Dividend Advantage

Some people assert that, because dividend cuts are possible, dividend based strategies are worthless. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

The Dividend Advantage

Dollar Cost Averaging Basics

The easiest way to understand dollar cost averaging is with an example.

Dollar Cost Averaging Basics

Dividend Growth or Dividend Yield

Should you seek dividend growth or dividend yield in a retirement portfolio?

Dividend Growth or Dividend Yield

Just Suppose

I do not have all of the FACTS. Yet, I believe that these insights are relevant to some important studies.

Just Suppose

Ten Years to Retirement

I used the Scenario Surfer to examine the period just before and after retirement.

Ten Years to Retirement

Risk Tolerance

Diversification

I am not a big fan of diversification.

Diversification