New Posts
Updated June 11, 2006.
New Search Feature
I have added a new search feature at the bottom of this page. It includes an index and a site map.
Revisiting P/E10
I did not start out assuming that P/E10 was a good measure of valuation. I checked a variety of measures and found that P/E10 was the best so far.
This time, I have examined variations on the number of years in the denominator. I looked at P/E1, P/E5, P/E10, P/E15, P/E20, P/E25 and P/E30.
Once again, P/E10 is best.
Revisiting P/E10
Revisiting P/E10: Dividends
Valuations have less relevance when estimating dividend amounts than prices. But they are relevant.
I checked a variety of measures. Even with dividends, P/E10 is best.
Revisiting P/E10: Dividends
Three Powerful Advantages of Dividend Strategies
Here are three powerful advantages of dividend-based strategies.
1) Dividends continue indefinitely.
2) Dividends isolate you from price fluctuations.
3) Dividend-based strategies have a gentle failure mechanism.
Three Powerful Advantages of Dividend Strategies
Dividends and Constant Terminal Value Rates
Constant Terminal Value Rates (CTVR) are withdrawal rates that leave the balance at the end of a period identical to the initial balance plus inflation. They are especially useful for young retirees because withdrawals continue indefinitely.
CTVR withdrawals allow for the selling of shares. Most dividend-based strategies do not. This makes for an interesting comparison.
Dividends and Constant Terminal Value Rates
May 2006 Highlights
Our roots date back to May 13, 2002, when Rob Bennett asked a simple question. It was not allowed to be answered. Now, it is May 2006.
May 2006 Highlights
May 2005 Highlights
Investment Traps
Here are four traps to avoid.
Investment Traps
Why People Ignore Valuations
Why Do People Ignore Valuations? In the past, it did not matter. It did not affect stock allocations. Today, it does.
Why People Ignore Valuations
Edited: Why People Ignore Valuations
Latched Threshold Survey
I have just built Latch and Hold Calculator LH02. It tells us what happens if we extend the crossing of a P/E10 threshold by a fixed number of years. This is my initial survey.
Latched Threshold Survey
Early Success with Latch and Hold
I recently built Latch and Hold Calculator LH02. It tells us what happens to Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates if we extend the crossing of a valuation (P/E10) threshold by a fixed number of years.
Latch and Hold dramatically improves the upside of (stock allocation) switching when starting in times of typical and bargain level valuations. Latch and Hold retains the advantage of switching versus fixed allocations in times of high valuations.
Early Success with Latch and Hold
Continued Success with Latch and Hold
This extends my early investigations of Latch and Hold.
Latch and Hold dramatically improves the upside of (stock allocation) switching when starting in times of typical and bargain level valuations. Latch and Hold retains the advantage of switching versus fixed allocations in times of high valuations.
This investigation shows that we can relax our requirements on the upper threshold.
Continued Success with Latch and Hold
Adding Constraints to Latch and Hold
Latch and Hold dramatically improves the upside of (stock allocation) switching when started in times of typical and bargain level valuations. Latch and Hold retains the advantage of switching versus fixed allocations in times of high valuations.
Earlier investigations showed that we can relax our requirements on the upper threshold. This investigation moves toward Benjamin Graham’s constraint on both stock and bond allocations to 25% to 75%.
We lose very little when we make the minimum stock allocation equal to 25%.
Adding Constraints to Latch and Hold
Earlier New Posts
These are earlier pages of New Posts.
New Posts (original)
New Posts (Sept-Oct 2005)
New Posts (Nov 2005-Jan 2006)
Dividend-Based Design Example, Historical Perspective: Dividends and Earnings, The Story Behind the Numbers, Individuals Pick Winners, Risky Alternatives, Dollar Cost Averaging Today, Year 10 Choices, Diminishing Returns, Mean Reversion Theory, Building Blocks, Extracting Information, What Do I Really Think About Dividends?, Allocate 25%, Adopting a New Approach, What If There Is A Bubble? and Volatility and Your Timeframe.
New Posts though April 13, 2006