New Posts Index

5% the Hard Way; They Got It Wrong; 5.5% with Corporate Bonds?; Is 6% Normal After All?; When Price Drops Occur (Dollar Cost Averaging); When Price Drops Occur (Single Investment); When Price Drops Occur (Valuation Informed Indexing); When Price Drops Occur (DCA and VII); When Price Drops Occur (2 Stage DCA and VII); When Price Drops Occur (Retirement); When Price Drops Occur (DCA and VII variant); When Price Drops Occur (DCA and VII variant 2); Back of the Envelope 6%; Matching 3% TIPS. [more to follow]
New Posts Starting May 8, 2008

When P/E10=8: Accumulators; Sometimes Dividends Get Cut; Research Highlights; Approaching Retirement; Dividend Disaster; Not There Yet, Today; 6% is NOT Normal; Almost 5%; Delayed Purchase Withdrawals; Dividend Quality; The Dividend Advantage; Dollar Cost Averaging Basics; Dividend Growth or Dividend Yield; Just Suppose; Ten Years to Retirement; Risk Tolerance; Diversification.
New Posts Starting January 5, 2008

Elements of Skill; Threshold Distortion; Easing into 5%; Seeking 5%; Waiting for the Big Drop; Reaching for 5%; Conventional Portfolios at 4%; Twice Income; The Rule of 20-20; I am 40 and Worried; Fatally Flawed; Inflation Sensitivity Study; Dollar Cost Averaging Today: Revisited; When P/E10=8.
New Posts Starting December 1, 2007

Free Lunches for Everyone; Valuations During Accumulation; A Story for Accumulators; Another Story for Accumulators; Changing the Threshold; Adding a Second Threshold; Struggling during Maintenance; Lessons from the Scenario Surfer; Not Total Return; The Next Thirty Years; The Next Thirty Years Addendum; Share Buybacks.
New Posts Starting October 6, 2007

Saving For Retirement, Avoiding Disaster, Shun Rebalancing, Is $200000 Enough?, Annuities and TIPS, Risk Leads to Bankruptcy, Dividend Growth and Bond Ladders, The Great Mistake, Dividend Growth Rule of Thumb, Dividend Growth Story, Free Lunches for Everyone.
New Posts Starting August 18, 2007

Price Drops, Price Peaks, Subtle Observation about Dividend Capture, Building On a 45-Year Retirement, Starting at 5%, Starting at 5% with Risk, Rock Bottom Withdrawal Rate, Back of the Envelope: Dividend Blend, Dividend Blend Rule of Thumb, Data Mining Bias, Doctor’s Visit.
New Posts Starting May 17, 2007

What Do I Really Think About Long-Term Timing?, Using Weighted Averages, Using Weighted Averages, Valuations and Income Streams, Expanded Allocator Insights A, Expanded Allocator Insights B, Expanded Allocator Insights C, Building on Success, Expanded Allocator Insights D, Expanded Allocator Insights E, Today’s Alternatives, Taken At Face Value: Upside, May 2007 Highlights, Automatic Rebalancing Examples, Early Retirement with a Delayed Pension.
New Posts Starting April 3, 2007

Simple Path to 5%, Why It Works, Flaws in the Traditional Theory, A Special Kind of Investment, Fluctuating Dividends, Fluctuating Dividends with a Growth Kicker, Income Stream Insights, A Special Kind of Investment Sensitivity Study, A Special Kind of Investment Addendum, TIPS Table, Everyone CAN Be Above Average!, Taken At Face Value, The Cost of Capital Appreciation, Gentle Failure Mechanisms.
New Posts Starting from February 26, 2007

Dividends and the Gordon Model, Retiree Needs, Understanding R-Squared, Disturbing Numbers, Disturbing Numbers Follow On, S&P500 Dividend Growth, Using the TIPS Income Stream Allocator B, Income Stream Allocator Examples, Dividend Based S&P500 Allocation, More Income Stream Allocator Examples, Many Alternatives, Botched Early Retirement, Botched Early Retirement Special Example A-1, Dividend Baseline, Dividend Growth versus Liquidation, Capturing the Investment Return, Initial Yield versus Dividend Growth
New Posts Starting from January 17, 2007

Slowly Rising Earnings, Guessing the Future, Sideways Market Sound Bite, Maintenance Stage Survey, Returns, Not Equity Premiums, Elements of Success, Time Needed to Assure a Gain, Time Needed Applications, Dividend Growth Baselines, Dividend Growth Rates, Subdued Dividend Growth, Augmented Dividends Strategy, Guaranteed Augmented Dividends, The Delayed Purchase Concept.
New Posts starting from December 2, 2006

Denial Is Expensive, Dollar Cost Averaging at Year 15, The Next Recession, I Saw My Doctor Today, Capitalization Weighted Stock-Bond Allocations, Explosive Earnings Growth, Capitalization Weighting of What?, Mindless Comparisons to Index Funds, System Engineering, Today’s Skill, Short Term Price Fluctuations, Basic Estimates and Refinements, One Time Bets, Dividend Growth to the Rescue.
New Posts Starting from October 2, 2006

P/E10 Predictions Revisited, Playing with the Toy, More Fun with the Toy, Why Dividends Are Better, Great Fun with the Improved Retirement Trainer, Accumulation and the Retirement Trainer, Dividends versus Capital Appreciation, E10 or D10?, Type 2A Bull Bear Retirement Trainer, More PE10 Predictions, Retirement Planning Insights, Retirement Trainers and Accumulation, Learning the RIGHT Lessons, The Wrong Lessons.
New Posts Starting from August 28, 2006

The Lower Latch and Hold Threshold, Additional Constraints with Latch and Hold, Idiot Switching, Typical Values of P/E10, Special Note about Mean Reversion, No New Discovery This Time, Looking a Little Bit Harder, Time and the Gordon Model, Orders of Magnitude, Using Stock Return Predictions, Eye Opening Calculations with Compact CVTVR L, New Standards for Financial Reporting, Rational Pessimism and Tobin’s q, Turning Points, A Helpful Theorem, Designing a 45-Year Retirement, P/E10 Predictions, Bulls, Bears and P/E10 Predictions.
New Posts starting from June 13, 2006

New Search Feature, Revisiting P/E10, Revisiting P/E10: Dividends, Three Powerful Advantages of Dividend Strategies, Dividends and Constant Terminal Value Rates, May 2006 Highlights, Investment Traps, Why People Ignore Valuations, Latched Threshold Survey, Early Success with Latch and Hold, Continued Success with Latch and Hold, Adding Constraints to Latch and Hold.
New Posts though June 11, 2006

Dividend-Based Design Example, Historical Perspective: Dividends and Earnings, The Story Behind the Numbers, Individuals Pick Winners, Risky Alternatives, Dollar Cost Averaging Today, Year 10 Choices, Diminishing Returns, Mean Reversion Theory, Building Blocks, Extracting Information, What Do I Really Think About Dividends?, Allocate 25%, Adopting a New Approach, What If There Is A Bubble? and Volatility and Your Timeframe.
New Posts though April 13, 2006

Adding a Dividend-Only Extension, What Should You Do?, Gummy Slices, More Gummy Slices, Refusing to See the Obvious, Monthly Returns, Refusing to See: Dividends, Years to Double, Historical Perspective, Current Research F: Executive Summary.
New Posts (Nov 2005-Jan 2006)

I Don’t Want to Wait, But.., A Negative Risk Premium Makes Sense, Buy-and-Hold Projections, Valuations and Dividend-Based Strategies, Dividends and True Buy-and-Hold Investing, Withdrawal Rates at Favorable Valuations, Ridiculous Pessimism, None Dare Call it Skill, Gradually Increasing Bond Allocations: HSWR, Gradually Increasing Bond Allocations: Returns, Gradually Increasing Bond Allocations: Returns Addendum, Do All Really Bad Price Drops Happen at Times of High Valuations?
New Posts (Sept-Oct 2005)

How to Exploit Skill, Exploiting Skill: Newsletters, Portfolio Safety Insights, Predicting Stock Market Returns, More Than a Number, Rule of Thumb?, Apples and Pears, Using SWR Analysis to Compare Asset Classes: Edited, Prices Matter, Design Calculations, Equations for Design, You Can’t Count on 7%, You Can’t Count on 7%: Application, You Can’t Count on 7%: Dollars, Since You Can’t Count on 7%, I Don’t Want to Wait, Accumulation Stage: Edited, Why PE10?, Speculative Return, Our Roots, Should You Buy an Annuity?, Growth-Value Switching, I Don’t Want to Wait, But.., A Negative Risk Premium Makes Sense.
New Posts (original)