New Posts

This is the place to read some of our most recent posts.

How to Exploit Skill

For mutual fund investors: this very short overview tells you how to find and exploit skill.
How to Exploit Skill

Exploiting Skill: Newsletters

We can do even better with investment newsletters.
Exploiting Skill: Newsletters

Portfolio Safety Insights

I have collected data to help you monitor the safety of your retirement portfolio. You will be able to spot dangers early enough to respond effectively.
Portfolio Safety Insights

Predicting Stock Market Returns

We need to predict stock market returns for retirement planning. Monte Carlo models require such predictions as inputs. So does my SWR Translator.
Predicting Stock Market Returns

More Than a Number

Safe Withdrawal Rate research is about more than a single number. It is central to many early retirement planning insights.
More Than a Number

Rule of Thumb?

A Safe Withdrawal Rate is a calculation, not a rule of thumb. We determine Safe Withdrawal Rates from the historical record. But, Safe Withdrawal Rates are not the same as Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates.
Rule of Thumb?

Apples and Pears

There is much too much confusion surrounding Safe Withdrawal Rate research. Be careful when making comparisons.
Apples and Pears

Using SWR Analysis to Compare Asset Classes: Edited

Here are some of Rob Bennett’s thoughts about using SWR analysis to compare asset classes. He has done this for years.
Using SWR Analysis to Compare Asset Classes: Edited

Prices Matter

Prices matter. I see the need for price discipline repeatedly. It is not difficult.
Prices Matter

Design Calculations

Here are some designs for 40-year and 50-year retirement portfolios. We are still in the early stages of doing this.
Design Calculations

Equations for Design

These are equations that we use repeatedly when we design our retirement portfolios.
Equations for Design

You Can’t Count on 7%

Too many people have been lulled into believing that they can always get 6.5% to 7.0% (plus inflation) from stocks. What can you really count on? It certainly isn’t 7%. Not by year 30. Not today.
You Can’t Count on 7%

You Can’t Count on 7%: Application

Let’s say that you want to invest in stocks. Let us say that you have a lump sum to invest and that you can leave it untouched for 30 years? Does it make sense to “wait for better prices?” What should you do?
You Can’t Count on 7%: Application

You Can’t Count on 7%: Dollars

While putting this together, I discovered that I had focused entirely on the downside. I had omitted the most important condition: what happens if you are just a little bit lucky, but well within a reasonable range of outcomes? What is the upside?

You have seen lots of numbers. Now let’s look at dollars.
You Can’t Count on 7%: Dollars

Since You Can’t Count on 7%

Those earlier articles were fine for investors who already have a large balance and lots of time. What about those people who wish to retire ten years from now? What is their payoff for waiting? How about those who are just starting out? What should they do?
Since You Can’t Count on 7%

I Don’t Want to Wait

You want to retire early. You don’t want to wait another decade. Maybe, you won’t have to. Maybe, you can retire a lot sooner.
I Don’t Want to Wait

Accumulation Stage: Edited

How should you invest BEFORE retirement? Here are some insights for the accumulation stage.

This is a compilation from five posts.
Accumulation Stage: Edited

Why PE10?

Many people have been convinced that there is no meaningful way to predict stock market returns. Don’t fall into that trap.
Why PE10?

Speculative Return

The return from the stock market can be broken into two parts: the investment return and the speculative return.
Speculative Return

Our Roots

This is the introduction to the old SWR Research Group discussion board at NoFeeBoards.com. These are our roots.
Our Roots

Should You Buy an Annuity?

Annuities can make a lot of sense for traditional retirees. They make much less sense for younger retirees.
Should You Buy an Annuity?

Growth-Value Switching

I varied the allocations between Large Cap Growth stocks and Large Cap Value stocks in a portfolio in accordance with P/E10. Growth-Value Switching

I Don’t Want to Wait, But..

You have read I Don’t Want to Wait. You like what it says. But it requires P/E10 = 8.7. Maybe, that is too optimistic.

How about P/E10 = 12?

If you have a relatively modest $260K and if you decide to wait ten years, you can look forward to receiving an annual income stream of $20K (plus inflation). This makes an excellent supplement to social security and/or pension income.
I Don’t Want to Wait, But..

A Negative Risk Premium Makes Sense

In today’s environment, it makes sense for you to be charged a premium when you buy stocks.
A Negative Risk Premium Makes Sense