Short Posts Starting from September 18, 2006
Updated: December 4, 2006.
Retirement Trainers and Accumulation
My Retirement Trainers help you improve your skill during accumulation.
Retirement Trainers and Accumulation
The Wrong Lessons
The experts have let us down. Too many are teaching us the wrong lessons.
The Wrong Lessons
The Next Recession
When do you expect the next recession? Within 5 years? Within 10 years?
In either case, it is time to hold cash.
The Next Recession
I Saw My Doctor Today
Right off the bat, he told me that he does not understand what I send him.
I Saw My Doctor Today
Capitalization Weighted Stock-Bond Allocations
The Efficient Market Hypothesis leads to a variable stock and bond allocation. [NOTE: I am NOT an advocate of the Efficient Market Hypothesis.]
Capitalization Weighted Stock-Bond Allocations
Explosive Earnings Growth
I have made another attempt to improve upon P/E10. The result: a warning about earnings growth in times of high valuations.
Explosive Earnings Growth
Capitalization Weighting of What?
This exposes the underlying fallacy related to Sharpe’s Theorem that capitalization weighting matches the return of the market as a whole. It incorporates Dr. Hussman’s observation that money can never enter nor leave the market as a whole.
What has been missing? What is the critical oversight? Dividends.
Capitalization Weighting of What?
Mindless Comparisons to Index Funds
How often have you read that actively managed funds underperform a suitably chosen index? It is a lie.
Mindless Comparisons to Index Funds
New Standards for Financial Reporting
During my professional career, I was never allowed to get away without doing the following. Why do we allow "financial experts" to get away with anything less?
This is based on my “It’s about time...” series of notes.
New Standards for Financial Reporting
System Engineering
Most of my professional work was in system engineering. You can see evidence of this throughout this site.
System Engineering
Today’s Skill
Today’s skill is intermediate-term market timing.
Today’s Skill
One Time Bets
I was offered a bet recently.
It was the kind of thing that would be a real money maker if I could duplicate its essential features again and again. I cannot. It was only a one-time opportunity.
One Time Bets
Sideways Market Sound Bite
If stock prices remain steady and if valuations return to reasonable levels through earnings growth, the best stock allocation for dividend investors will be a toss up.
Dividend investors who own TIPS as well as stocks will do well if prices drop faster. They will be able to replace their TIPS with stocks at more attractive yields.
Edited: Sideways Market Sound Bite
Sideways Market Sound Bite
Older Short Posts
Special Note about Mean Reversion, No New Discovery This Time, Looking a Little Bit Harder, Time and the Gordon Model, Edited: Orders of Magnitude, Using Stock Return Predictions, Eye Opening Calculations with Compact CVTVR L, New Standards for Financial Reporting, Tobin q Errors, Turning Points, A Helpful Theorem, Why Dividends Are Better, Dividends versus Capital Appreciation, Edited: E10 or D10?, Type 2A Bull Bear Retirement Trainer, Retirement Planning Insights.
Short Posts Starting June 27, 2006
SWR Success, Extracting Information, What Do I Really Think About Dividends?, Allocate 25%, What If There Is A Bubble?, Volatility and Your Timeframe, Dividend Growth Sensitivity Study, Three Powerful Advantages of Dividend Strategies, May 2006 Highlights, Investment Traps, Why People Ignore Valuations, Edited: Idiot Switching, Typical Values of P/E10
February 6, 2006 Short Posts
None Dare Call it Skill, Adding a Dividend-Only Extension, Monthly Returns, Monthly Returns, Historical Perspective, Historical Perspective: Dividends and Earnings, Dividend-Based Design Outline, Lessons from the Dow Jones Utilities, Individuals Pick Winners, Risky Alternatives, DCA Today: The Point of Frustration, Diminishing Returns, Dividends and Constant Terminal Value Rates.
September 27, 2005 Short Posts
I Don’t Want to Wait, Prices Matter, More Than a Number, How to Exploit Skill, Always Insist on a Baseline, A Bright Future, Applying P/E10 Outside of the S&P500, Nobody Tries to Beat the Market, Many Different Objectives, Data Based Safe Withdrawal Rates, An Illusion of Numbers, Demographics and Dividends, May 2005 Highlights, Growth-Value Switching, A Negative Risk Premium Makes Sense.
Pre-September 27, 2005 Short Posts