Short Posts starting from December 10, 2007.

Updated: May 5, 2008.

Easing into 5%

This time, I examined the conventional withdrawal strategy, one that includes selling shares.

I used the Scenario Surfer to determine whether I could lift the 30-Year withdrawal rate to 5% of the original balance (plus inflation) after a five year delay at 4%. I found that I could, but only if I adjusted withdrawals in accordance with valuations.

Easing into 5%

Seeking 5%

I examined the conventional strategy with variable withdrawals. I tried to lift the 30-Year withdrawal rate to 5% of the original balance (plus inflation) except for brief periods at 4%.

It is better to ease into a 5% withdrawal rate with the first five years at 4%.

Seeking 5%

Waiting for the Big Drop

I tried to reach a 5% withdrawal rate with a conventional withdrawal strategy, one that includes selling shares. This time I limited my stock allocation to 50% unless I encountered a big drop: 10% of the original balance (plus inflation).

Once again, I failed.

Waiting for the Big Drop

Reaching for 5%

We routinely exceed a 5% (plus inflation) withdrawal rate with the Dividend Blend and related strategies. What about conventional strategies, those that include selling shares?

With conventional strategies and in today’s market, 5% is beyond our reach.

Reaching for 5%

The Rule of 20-20

You need to save 20 times your desired retirement income. Worst case, your buying power will drop briefly by 20%.

The Rule of 20-20

I am 40 and Worried

Suppose that you are 40 and you have $100000. You have limited income. You are worried. Will you have enough at age 70? Will you be out on the street?

You will be OK. Use commonsense and pay attention to dividends.

I am 40 and Worried

Fatally Flawed

Traditional Safe Withdrawal Rate studies are fatally flawed.

Fatally Flawed

Inflation Sensitivity Study

I ran a short sensitivity test on a Taken At Face Value condition.

Inflation Sensitivity Study

Sometimes Dividends Get Cut

Some people ascribe special significance to the recent dividend cuts among several Blue Chip financial institutions. They should not.

Sometimes Dividends Get Cut

Research Highlights

Here is an overview of some of my more important findings.

Research Highlights

Delayed Purchase Withdrawals

Close examination of Almost 5% data directs our attention to the waiting period as valuations return to normal. We must prepare for an extended period to assure safety.

Delayed Purchase Withdrawals
February 12, 2008 Letters to the Editor

Dividend Quality

Dividend investors should pay attention to the quality of dividends. Here are several factors to consider.

Dividend Quality

The Dividend Advantage

Some people assert that, because dividend cuts are possible, dividend based strategies are worthless. Nothing could be farther from the truth.

The Dividend Advantage

Dividend Growth or Dividend Yield

Should you seek dividend growth or dividend yield in a retirement portfolio?

Dividend Growth or Dividend Yield

Just Suppose

I do not have all of the FACTS. Yet, I believe that these insights are relevant to some important studies.

Just Suppose

Risk Tolerance

Diversification

I am not a big fan of diversification.

Diversification