Short Posts

I Don’t Want to Wait

You want to retire early. You don’t want to wait another decade. Maybe, you won’t have to. Maybe, you can retire a lot sooner.
I Don’t Want to Wait

Prices Matter

Prices matter. I see the need for price discipline repeatedly. It is not difficult.
Prices Matter

More Than a Number

Safe Withdrawal Rate research is about more than a single number. It is central to our early retirement planning insights.
More Than a Number

How to Exploit Skill

For mutual fund investors: this tells you how to find and exploit skill.
How to Exploit Skill

Always Insist on a Baseline

I cannot stress enough how important it is for you to have a baseline.
Always Insist on a Baseline

A Bright Future

Stocks are at record valuations. Interest rates have been held artificially low and they are poised to jump. How do things look for a new retiree?

Bright. Very bright indeed.
A Bright Future

Applying P/E10 Outside of the S&P500

I have applied P/E10 to all five equity slices available in my database.
Applying P/E10 Outside of the S&P500

Nobody Tries to Beat the Market

I assert that the typical mutual fund manager knowingly pursues a suboptimal strategy. If he doesn’t, he loses his opportunity to pursue any kind of strategy. The typical mutual fund looks as if it is run by a gambler because it is run by a gambler.
Nobody Tries to Beat the Market

Many Different Objectives

The most commonly used, misleading assertion is that nobody can beat the market. Along with this is the observation that the average investor receives the average return of the market (before taking fees and expenses into account).

Different people have different needs.
Many Different Objectives

Data Based Safe Withdrawal Rates

There are three or four different things that people call Safe Withdrawal Rates. We distinguish Rob Bennett’s innovation by calling it the Data Based SWR Tool.
Data Based Safe Withdrawal Rates

An Illusion of Numbers

I have often read that we should not be concerned about stock prices if we are investing for the long-term. That isn’t really true.
An Illusion of Numbers

Demographics and Dividends

Demographics plays a major role. It is in the background.
Demographics and Dividends

May 2005 Highlights

This is a brief summary of our latest findings as of May 2005.
May 2005 Highlights

Growth-Value Switching

I varied the allocations between Large Cap Growth stocks and Large Cap Value stocks in a portfolio in accordance with P/E10.
Growth-Value Switching

A Negative Risk Premium Makes Sense

In today’s environment, it makes sense for you to be charged a premium when you buy stocks.
A Negative Risk Premium Makes Sense