S&P500 Returns
Here are the annualized, real, total returns of the S&P500 index.
Historically, the long-term return is 6.5% to 7.0%. But that is for the very long-term of 50 or 60 years.
The percentage earnings yield 100E10/P is 100/[P/E10]. P/E10 is the current index value divided by the average of the most recent ten years of earnings. Professor Robert Shiller of Yale has shown that P/E10 has predictive capability in the intermediate-term. I derived these tables from data at Professor Shiller’s web site.
Professor Shiller’s web site
Notice that the 30-year annualized, real, total return has been below 4% before. It has remained above 4.0% in the recent 1921-1980 era. It was between 4.0% and 5.0% in 1952, 1955-1957 and 1959-1966.
Notice that the 10-year annualized, real, total returns were negative in 1965-1973. The first ten years have a tremendous influence how well a retirement portfolio will do. The years 1965-1973 were especially difficult for retirement portfolios.
10, 20 and 30 Year Returns
Year 100E10/P 10 years 20 years 30 years
1871 7.5 12.69 8.61 8.53
1872 6.9 10.56 9.18 8.61
1873 6.5 10.26 8.64 8.26
1874 7.2 10.32 8.24 7.70
1875 7.4 8.95 8.01 8.14
1876 7.5 10.79 7.60 8.43
1877 9.4 13.55 8.68 8.81
1878 10.3 11.40 8.70 7.47
1879 9.3 9.48 8.60 7.58
1880 6.5 8.59 6.91 7.04
1881 5.4 4.68 6.50 6.17
1882 6.4 7.81 7.65 6.57
1883 6.5 7.05 7.28 6.37
1884 6.9 6.19 6.42 6.02
1885 7.6 7.07 7.74 5.83
1886 6.0 4.51 7.26 5.67
1887 5.7 4.01 6.51 5.16
1888 6.5 6.07 5.57 4.13
1889 6.3 7.73 6.65 3.81
1890 5.8 5.26 6.27 3.46
1891 6.5 8.35 6.92 3.34
1892 5.3 7.49 5.95 3.26
1893 5.6 7.51 6.02 4.18
1894 6.4 6.65 5.93 4.42
1895 6.1 8.42 5.22 4.94
1896 6.0 10.09 6.25 5.46
1897 5.9 9.07 5.74 5.71
1898 5.2 5.06 3.17 6.29
1899 4.4 5.57 1.90 6.84
1900 5.3 7.30 2.57 6.95
1901 4.8 5.51 0.92 5.66
1902 4.5 4.43 1.20 3.82
1903 4.9 4.56 2.55 3.95
1904 6.3 5.22 3.32 5.80
1905 5.4 2.11 3.24 4.59
1906 5.0 2.55 3.23 5.36
1907 5.8 2.52 4.06 6.38
1908 8.4 1.31 6.91 5.96
1909 6.8 (1.63) 7.47 5.50
1910 6.9 (1.94) 6.78 5.49
1911 7.1 (3.46) 5.74 5.02
1912 7.2 (1.92) 3.52 4.21
1913 7.6 0.58 3.65 4.56
1914 8.6 1.45 6.09 5.40
1915 9.6 4.38 5.86 6.14
1916 8.0 3.91 6.79 6.37
1917 9.1 5.63 8.36 5.50
1918 15.2 12.82 8.36 6.48
1919 16.4 17.42 9.26 6.82
1920 16.7 16.27 9.42 7.41
Year 100E10/P 10 years 20 years 30 years
1921 19.6 15.83 9.53 8.56
1922 15.9 9.26 7.42 8.33
1923 12.2 6.82 6.61 7.87
1924 12.3 10.95 7.43 7.86
1925 10.3 7.36 7.03 8.40
1926 8.8 9.75 7.62 8.61
1927 7.6 11.17 5.43 8.27
1928 5.3 4.08 3.45 6.83
1929 3.7 1.67 1.89 6.57
1930 4.5 2.97 3.23 7.10
1931 6.0 3.57 5.10 7.80
1932 10.8 5.61 7.86 9.78
1933 11.5 6.41 8.40 9.55
1934 7.7 4.02 6.35 8.71
1935 8.7 6.69 8.92 9.58
1936 5.8 5.53 8.04 8.43
1937 4.6 (0.00) 6.85 7.16
1938 7.4 2.83 8.23 8.80
1939 6.4 2.11 9.11 8.45
1940 6.1 3.49 9.22 7.79
1941 7.2 6.65 9.98 8.19
1942 9.9 10.16 11.92 9.20
1943 9.8 10.44 11.15 9.29
1944 9.0 8.72 11.13 7.74
1945 8.3 11.20 11.06 6.04
1946 6.4 10.61 9.91 5.89
1947 8.7 14.18 10.94 7.08
1948 9.6 13.93 11.91 6.79
1949 9.8 16.59 11.77 6.70
1950 9.3 15.28 10.01 6.16
1951 8.4 13.42 8.97 5.82
1952 8.0 13.71 8.72 4.82
1953 7.7 11.87 8.72 5.12
1954 8.3 13.59 7.25 5.54
1955 6.3 10.91 3.55 4.37
1956 5.5 9.22 3.60 4.17
1957 6.0 7.78 3.70 4.92
1958 7.2 9.94 3.39 5.03
1959 5.6 7.16 2.08 4.34
1960 5.5 4.98 1.87 4.65
1961 5.4 4.69 2.20 4.29
1962 4.7 3.96 0.64 4.57
1963 5.2 5.66 1.90 4.84
1964 4.6 1.26 1.73 4.53
1965 4.3 (3.33) 1.24 4.01
1966 4.1 (1.73) 1.74 4.64
1967 4.9 (0.23) 3.51 5.70
1968 4.7 (2.76) 2.66 6.11
1969 4.7 (2.76) 2.96 6.81
1970 5.8 (1.15) 4.49 7.74
1971 6.1 (0.22) 4.09 7.39
1972 5.8 (2.57) 4.87 6.48
1973 5.3 (1.73) 4.43 xxx
1974 7.4 2.21 6.21 xxx
1975 11.2 6.03 7.89 xxx
1976 8.9 5.33 7.97 xxx
1977 8.8 7.40 8.80 xxx
1978 10.9 8.38 10.85 xxx
1979 10.8 9.01 11.94 xxx
1980 11.2 10.44 12.48 xxx
40, 50 and 60 Year Returns
Year 40 50 60
1871 8.53 7.76 5.42
1872 8.61 7.55 5.59
1873 7.33 5.94 6.09
1874 7.08 5.93 6.75
1875 6.60 6.15 6.35
1876 6.92 6.32 6.88
1877 7.20 6.88 7.59
1878 5.90 7.25 6.71
1879 5.20 7.54 6.54
1880 4.72 6.93 6.26
1881 3.67 6.00 5.59
1882 4.38 5.34 5.38
1883 4.89 5.27 5.46
1884 4.86 6.05 5.71
1885 5.47 5.84 5.98
1886 5.22 6.12 6.02
1887 5.28 6.43 5.33
1888 6.24 5.80 5.30
1889 7.06 5.96 5.31
1890 6.52 5.80 5.41
1891 6.33 5.77 5.92
1892 4.73 4.90 5.76
1893 4.83 5.14 6.01
1894 6.01 5.61 6.12
1895 5.54 5.77 6.65
1896 6.52 6.32 7.02
1897 7.05 5.60 6.98
1898 5.73 5.15 6.56
1899 5.52 4.83 6.70
1900 5.94 5.45 7.02
1901 5.14 5.44 6.73
1902 4.27 5.42 6.76
1903 4.56 5.71 6.71
1904 5.35 6.02 7.24
1905 5.12 6.31 7.06
1906 5.40 6.42 6.88
1907 4.75 6.57 6.77
1908 5.17 6.86 7.37
1909 4.64 6.93 6.97
1910 4.99 6.97 6.64
1911 5.42 6.98 6.59
1912 5.67 7.23 6.68
1913 6.00 7.15 6.90
1914 6.22 7.65 6.56
1915 7.38 8.08 6.09
1916 7.41 7.77 6.13
1917 7.61 7.64 6.29
1918 8.30 8.62 6.64
1919 9.18 8.78 6.76
1920 9.32 8.44 6.78
Year 40 50 60
1921 9.76 8.72 7.18
1922 9.65 8.49 6.56
1923 8.86 8.21 6.49
1924 9.26 7.61 6.69
1925 9.02 6.43 6.36
1926 8.76 6.58 6.37
1927 8.15 6.42 6.58
1928 7.60 5.44 5.93
1929 6.72 4.75 5.45
1930 6.56 4.98 5.87
1931 7.02 5.53 6.03
1932 8.29 6.03 7.14
1933 8.56 6.42 7.17
1934 6.79 5.86 6.60
1935 6.20 6.17 6.76
1936 5.80 5.70 6.52
1937 5.26 5.69 6.43
1938 5.79 6.30 7.45
1939 5.54 6.22 7.63
1940 5.48 6.46 7.76
1941 6.02 6.53 7.79
1942 6.13 7.45 7.83
1943 6.42 7.32
1944 6.33 7.12
1945 6.03 6.77
1946 5.75 6.72
1947 7.16 7.76
1948 7.18 8.40
1949 7.28 8.77
1950 7.21 8.64
1951 6.50 8.02
1952 6.78 7.37
1953 6.56
1954 6.73
1955 5.69
1956 5.76
1957 6.22
1958 7.06
1959 6.90
1960 7.04
1961 6.71
1962 5.85
Have fun. John Walter Russell Updated October 6, 2005 Font Size Change November 8, 2006
|